Nadal’s results in the lulls between his annual runs of success
by thriding
Just as Nadal has stretches of intense success, he also has lulls. My previous post on Nadal included details of his annual run of success. Here are the lulls in between them, and what Nadal acheived in them:
1. Between Madrid 2005 and Dubai 2006 (4 months)
Nadal had had a very successful 2005, winning tournaments throughout the year.
The only tournament Nadal played in this gap was Marseille, a fortnight before Dubai. He reached the SF, losing to Clement. He missed the Australian Open 2006 through injury.
2. Between Roland Garros 2006 and Indian Wells 2007 (8 months)
2006 had started well: he beat Federer at the Dubai final, and then won his usual quartet of clay titles (MC, Barcelona, Rome, RG)
- Queens, QF, lost to Hewitt
- Wimbledon, F, lost to Federer
- Toronto, R16, lost to Berdych
- Cincinnati, QF, JC Ferrero
- US Open, QF, Youzhny
- Stockholm, R16, J Johansson
- Madrid, QF, Berdych
- YEC, SF, Federer
- AO, QF, Gonzalez
- Dubai, QF, Youzhny
Six of out ten tournaments ended at QF for him, with just one RU, and one SF
3. Between Madrid Stuttgart 2007 and Monte Carlo 2008 (9 months)
Stuttgart 2007 was the last post-Roland Garros tournament that Nadal played. It was soon after he lost in 5 sets to Federer in the Wimbledon final
- Montreal, SF, Djokovic
- Cincinnati, R32, Monaco (ret.)
- US Open, R16, Ferrer
- Madrid, QF, Nalbandian
- Paris, F, Nalbandian
- YEC, SF, Federer
- Chennai, F, Youzhny
- AO, SF, Tsonga
- Rotterdam, R16, Seppi
- Dubai, QF, Roddick
- Indian Wells, SF, Djokovic
- Miami, F, Davydenko
In this run of 12 tournaments he reached 3 finals, 4 SF, 2 QF
4. Between Olympics 2008 and Australian Open 2009 (5 months)
2008 was one of Nadal’s most successful years, in which he won Wimbledon as well as the French Open, and then the Canadian Masters for a second time and Olympic gold. The lull that followed it was more of a catching of breath than anything else:
- US Open, SF, Murray
- Madrid, SF, Simon
- Paris, QF, Davydenko
- Doha, QF, Monfils
Only four tournaments in this lull, difficult to see any pattern, but can note that there weren’t any pre-QF losses this time
5. Between Rome 2009 and Monte Carlo 2010 (11 months)
2009 was the only year in which Nadal won two hard court titles before the clay season: the Australian Open and Indian Wells. The clay season came to halt with the long SF victory over Djokovic at Madrid. After this came the losses to Federer and Soderling, and Nadal was unable to defend his Wimbledon title.
- Madrid, F, Federer
- RG, R16, Soderling
- Montreal, QF, Del Potro
- Cincinnati, SF, Djokovic
- US Open, SF, Del Potro
- Beijing, SF, Cilic
- Shanghai, F, Davydenko
- Djokovic, SF, Paris
- YEC, RR, (3 x L)
- Doha, F, Davydenko
- AO, QF, Murray
- Indian Wells, SF, Ljubicic
- Miami, SF, Roddick
Aside from the shock loss to Soderling at Roland Garros and the poor performance at the YEC, there were no pre-QF losses: at the other 11 tournaments there were 3 finals, 6 SF, 2 QF
6. Between Tokyo 2010 and Monte Carlo 2011 (6 months)
2010 had been another of Nadal’s exceptional years, and he went one further than 2008, in that he won the US Open as well as Wimbledon and Roland Garros. Once the run came to an end in Shanghai, the results were generally still strong:
- Shanghai, R16, Melzer
- YEC, F, Federer
- Doha, SF, Davydenko
- AO, QF, Ferrer
- Indian Wells, F, Djokovic
- Miami, F, Djokovic
In just six tournaments Nadal reached 3 finals, with just the one poor result in Shanghai. The loss to Ferrer in the Australian Open QF was in straight sets, and Nadal took a long rest afterwards.
7. Between Roland Garros 2011 and Monte Carlo 2012 (11 months)
2011 is already remember as the year in which Djokovic raised himself emphatically over Nadal, though what might have happened between at Roland Garros will never be known.
- Queens, QF, Tsonga
- Wimbledon, F, Djokovic
- Montreal, R32, Dodig
- Cincinnati, QF, Fish
- US Open, F, Djokovic
- Tokyo, F, Murray
- Shanghai, R16, Mayer
- YEC, RR, (2 x L)
- Doha, SF, Monfils
- AO, F, Djokovic
- Indian Well, SF, Federer
- Miami, SF, Murray (w/o)
In these 12 tournaments there are 4 finals (the most in any lull) 3 SFs, 2 QFs and 2 pre-QF losses
8. Since Roland Garros 2012 (2 months)
In the clay-court season Nadal reasserted himself over Djokovic, at least on that surface, beating him at Monte Carlo, Rome and Roland Garros.
Since then he has played just two tournaments: his traditional pre-Wimbledon QF at Halle (Kohlschreiber) and then the big shock:
- Wimbledon, R64, Rosol
The average of the seven completed lulls has been seven and a half months long and has contained eight tournaments
In order of length:
- 5. 2009/10, 11 months, 13 tournaments, 3 finals, 6 SFs, 2 QFs, 2 pre-QF
- 7. 2011/12, 11 months, 12 tournaments, 4 finals, 3 SFs, 2 QFs, 2 pre-QF
- 3. 2007/08, 9 months, 12 tournaments, 3 finals, 4 SFs, 2 QFs, 3 pre-QF
- 2. 2006/07, 8 months, 10 tournaments, 1 final, 1 SF, 6 QFs, 2 pre-QF
- 6. 2010/11, 6 months, 6 tournaments, 3 finals, 1 SF, 1 QF, 1 pre-QF
- 4. 2008/09, 5 months, 4 tournaments, 0 finals, 2 SFs, 2 QFs, 0 pre-QF
- 1. 2005/6, 4 months, 1 tournament, 0 finals, 1 SF, 0 QFs, 0 pre-QF
The longest was after the knee-Soderling combination, the second longest thanks to Djokovic’s run from AO 2011 to AO 2012. Next come the two lulls after losing in the Wimbledon final. Then the two lulls after multi-slam streaks, and finally the short injury-ridden lull after his first year of great success.
Comment which failed to get posted emailed to me from Jewell:Ok, let’s try again…There are some injury breaks in the lulls as well, posting because you asked me to, not to make excuses or to say "this is why there were lulls". Not mentioning general problems, just tournaments missed.In 2005 Nadal missed the YEC and then the AO with a foot injury. He still has a foot issue that doesn’t help the knee issues.In 2008 Rafa retired from the Paris Masters with knee problems and then missed the YEC and the Davis Cup final. 2009 involved a break after Rotterdam and missing Dubai, after Nadal injured a knee (not a tendinitis problem apparently) in the final against Murray. Then he had to withdraw from Queens & Wimbledon and said in his book that he thought the mental trouble caused by his parents’ divorce and family disruption had manifested itself in physical problems. It was kind of a perfect storm.
more from Jewell:He had to take a month off after the AO in 2010 but I forget if Rotterdam or anything was actually scheduled for then. He missed Paris with shoulder problems. In 2011 he again had to take time after the AO but I can’t remember if any tournaments were scheduled anyway. I think he also missed Paris again. And in 2012 Rafa’s had to miss the Olympics due to knee problems. Quite a lot has been made of Nadal not winning a title off clay since 2010 but to be honest I think that has more to do with Djokovic than Nadal – it’s not as if he has been consistently loses in early rounds off clay. In 2011, first Novak was unbeatable, and then it seemed that he’d earned a bit of "I can’t beat this guy" from Rafa, in their later 2011 matches. Plus, I’d say Novak was the superior player of the two on hard courts, generally. Rafa broke out of that stranglehold a bit in the AO final and he got a bit of luck in their first clay court match this year, in that Novak was emotionally depleted in the MC final. I do wonder if playing on was the right decision there, and what Novak’s season might’ve looked like if he had withdrawn from that tourney. But he hasn’t looked consistenly like 2011 Novak for most of the year, and that started even before Monte Carlo.Last time Rafa lost so early in Wimbledon, in 2005, he managed a couple of big wins in the autumn, even one indoors. I wonder if he will able to do that this year. (and no, I don’t think that’s why he won’t play the Olympics. *rolls eyes*)